IELTS Academic Reading Test
ALocked beneath 23 million square kilometres of permanently frozen ground in the Arctic, sub-Arctic, and high-altitude regions lies approximately 1,500 billion tonnes of organic carbon — nearly double the quantity currently held in Earth's atmosphere. This vast reservoir, accumulated over millennia as partially decomposed plant and animal matter, remained effectively inert so long as soil temperatures stayed consistently below zero degrees Celsius. Since 1980, however, mean annual temperatures across the Arctic have risen at roughly four times the global average, and the boundary between frozen and thawed ground has begun to shift with measurable consequences for the global carbon cycle.
BPermafrost is defined not by ice content but by temperature: ground that has remained at or below 0°C for a minimum of two consecutive years qualifies, regardless of whether water is present in solid or liquid form. Continuous permafrost — where frozen ground underlies more than 90 percent of the land surface — extends across much of northern Siberia, Alaska, and Canada. South of this zone lies discontinuous permafrost, characterised by patches of frozen ground interspersed with thawed areas, typically at depths ranging from a few centimetres to several hundred metres. The distinction carries practical significance because discontinuous permafrost is thermally closer to the thaw threshold and therefore more immediately susceptible to temperature-driven destabilisation than its continuous counterpart.
CWhen permafrost thaws, the organic material it contains becomes accessible to microbial communities that were previously dormant. Bacteria and archaea metabolise the formerly frozen carbon through aerobic and anaerobic pathways, releasing it as carbon dioxide and methane respectively. The ratio of these two gases in the resulting emissions depends largely on drainage conditions: well-drained soils favour aerobic decomposition and CO₂ production, while waterlogged or flooded surfaces generate methane at substantially higher rates. Since methane carries a global warming potential approximately 86 times greater than CO₂ over a 20-year horizon, the hydrology of a thawing landscape determines not merely the volume but the climatic potency of its emissions — a distinction with profound implications for how researchers model permafrost's contribution to warming.
DOne mechanism that has attracted increasing attention from climate scientists is the formation of thermokarst lakes. As ice-rich permafrost thaws unevenly, the ground surface subsides and depression pools accumulate meltwater, creating shallow lakes that absorb solar radiation and accelerate localised warming. A 2021 study published in Nature Communications reported that thermokarst lakes in Siberia had expanded in surface area by an average of 14 percent between 1999 and 2019, emitting methane at concentrations up to 50 times higher than surrounding dry tundra. Once established, these lakes can trigger self-reinforcing thaw cycles that persist independently of broader surface air temperature trends, effectively decoupling local warming from the global climate signal.
EModelling studies project a wide range of outcomes depending on assumptions about future emissions trajectories and the fraction of soil carbon that will ultimately be mobilised. Under a high-emissions scenario, permafrost thaw could release between 68 and 508 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent by 2100 — a range that reflects deep uncertainty in both the rate of thaw and soil carbon availability. Crucially, none of these projected emissions are currently incorporated into the baseline climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for its headline temperature projections, meaning that official forecasts may systematically underestimate the scale of warming by failing to account for what some researchers have termed a hidden multiplier in the Earth's climate system.
FSeveral mitigation strategies have been proposed, though each faces significant practical constraints. Reflective surface treatments — scattering light-coloured materials such as crushed limestone across tundra areas — could theoretically reduce localised heat absorption, but the scale required renders field application logistically implausible across millions of hectares. A more ecologically grounded intervention is the Pleistocene Park project in north-eastern Siberia, where researchers have re-introduced large herbivores — including bison, musk oxen, and horses — with the aim of compacting snow through trampling. Compacted snow conducts heat less efficiently than loose snow, thereby maintaining lower ground temperatures through winter months. Preliminary data from a 25-square-kilometre trial plot indicated that ground temperatures were approximately 2°C lower in areas grazed by large animals than in adjacent ungrazed areas, though scaling this approach beyond pilot conditions remains undemonstrated.
GThe scientific consensus holds that permafrost thaw represents a committed feedback rather than a contingent risk: even if global mean temperature increases are held to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, an estimated 10 percent of near-surface permafrost will thaw irreversibly. At 2°C, that figure rises to approximately 40 percent. The carbon release associated with these losses will not be offset by increased plant growth in newly thawed Arctic soils, as some earlier models predicted; more recent analyses indicate that the decomposition signal substantially outpaces any gains from enhanced photosynthetic uptake in the short to medium term. The permafrost carbon feedback consequently operates on a timeline that sits uncomfortably outside the planning horizons of most climate policy frameworks, demanding forms of institutional response for which current governance structures remain largely unprepared.